There is an urgent need to rebalance policy in order to shift to a more robust and sustainable global expansion and address accumulated vulnerabilities, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) writes in its 86th Annual Report, calling for prudential, fiscal and structural policies to play a greater role.
“We need policies that we will not once again regret when the future becomes today,” the BIS says in the report, released today, which describes a broad-based economic realignment as financial cycles mature, commodity prices fall, the dollar strengthens and global liquidity starts to tighten.
In its flagship economic report, the BIS argues that growth rates are not far from historical averages. Still, it identifies a risky combination of unusually low productivity growth, historically high global debt and shrinking room for policy manoeuvre, which leaves the global economy highly exposed, not least to shocks and political risks.
The recommended policy rebalancing should be incorporated into a long-term framework with a stronger focus on preventing costly financial boom-bust cycles, the BIS says. Prudential, fiscal and structural policies need to work alongside monetary policy, with a clear delineation of responsibilities.
The structure of taxes and subsidies could be adjusted to remove the bias towards debt accumulation, for example by eliminating the tax advantage of debt over equity, and the quality of public spending could be improved by focusing more on investment. Throughout this process, prudently assessing fiscal space and maintaining sound public finances are key.
